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Барановский Е.Г., Владиславлева Н.Н. Методы анализа международных конфликтов - файл 1.doc

Барановский Е.Г., Владиславлева Н.Н. Методы анализа международных конфликтов
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1995-1996 Berton-liogge, Roberte ed.; Crosnier,
Marie-Agnes ed. Paris: La documentation Francaise, 1996.
202 p.

  • Arms control and the strategic defense initiative; Soviet inter­
    pretation and response; A new dilemma for NATO; Breaking
    the deadlock: three perspectives / Doerge, David J. ed.;
    Hough, Jerry F.; Sloan, Stanley R.; Warnke. Paul C.; Line-
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  • Arms export regulations Anthony, Ian, ed. Oxford:

    Governments are obliged to ensure effective regulation of arms exports and to monitor their movement. The book provides a de­tailed picture of how governments discharge their legal obliga-

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    linn. Individual chapters describe the national efforts of 24 gov­ernments to control arms transfers, concentrating on the legal framework that exists to regulate arms exports.

    1. Aron R. Paix et Guerre entre les nations. Paris, 1984.

    2. Attacks on the press in 1995 CPJ = Committee to Protect
      Journalists. New York, NY: CPJ, 1996.

    3. Balkan tragedy: chaos and dissolution alter the cold war
      Woodward, Susan L. Washington, D.C. Brookings Institu­
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    4. Barriers to conversion, from military to civilian industry: in
      market, planned and developing economies / Melman,
      Seymour. / United Nations Centre for Disarmament. New
      York, NY: Columbia U, 1980. 41 p.

    5. A discussion of military industry conversion in market,
      planned and developing countries specifically: « market econ­
      omy* United States, England, Germany; ^planned econ­
      omy» USSR; -developing countries* - Egypt, Israel and

    6. Beckman Peter R. World Politics in the 20 century.
      Englewood Crifts, New Jersey, 1984.

    7. Beyond UN subcontracting: task-sharing with regional secu­
      rity arrangements and service-providing NGO's Weiss,
      Thomas G. ed. New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 1998.
      266 p.

    8. Blue geopolitics: the United Nations reform and the future of
      the blue helmets Fisas, Vicenc. East Haven, CT: Pluto
      Press, 1995.

    9. Bret ton Woods and Dumbarton Oaks: American economic and
      political postwar planning in the summer of 1944 Schild,
      Georg. New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 1995. 254 p.

    This book compares the postwar planning conference of the Treasury, held at Bretton Woods, and the planning conference of the state Department, held at Dumbarton Oaks. While the 2 departments advocated similar goals of post war economic pros­perity and military security, they followed different strategies to achieve those goals. At the Bretton Woods conference held in

    July 19-14, the Treasury Department insisted that only states that could adhere to strict fiscal rules designed to increase the volume of international trade could join the newly created I MI-'. At the Dumbarton Oaks conference held from August through October 1944, the State Department deliberately did not impose such prerequisites, but hoped to include all WW II Allies in the New collective security structure of the United Nations. By comparing the 2 conferences, the author presents a wide ranging and authoritative account of Washington's intentions for the world that was to emerge at the end of the war. 2. Broadening the edges: refugee definition and international

    protection revisited , Kourula, Pirkko. Hague: Marti mis

    Nijhoff Publishers, 1997. 407 p.

    This volume brings the refugee issue out of the narrow confines of refugee law into the centre of international law and internati­onal relations. It reviews the concept of the refugee, and the in­ternational protection of refugees from the unconventional angle of the prospects and limitations of multilateralism in the post Cold War era. It is comprehensive because it offers a review of state practice within the United Nations and regional contexts, as well as a review of the practice of the United Nations inter-Agency system. It is practical because it is based on the personal experience of it's author, not on theoretical models. The broad­ening concept of security, affecting the attitudes of states to­wards .refugees, is the underlying theme ol the book. As a result. :he contemporary preoccupation with how best to provide inter­national protection to all those in need of it is reviewed from a lumber of relevant perspectives including that of peacckeep-ng, sanctions, and coordination and competence within the UN. 73), Building democracy; the OMRI annual survey of Eastern

    Europe and the Former Soviet Union 1995 Brown. J.F.

    OMRI. New York, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1996. 24 p. . 74. Burundi: trafics d'armes el aide inilitaire Pailhe, Caroline

    trans. Human Rights Watch Arms Project. Bruxelles:

    GRIP = Croupe de Recherche et: d*informal;ton sur la Paix et

    la Securite, 1997. 30 cm.; 70p.

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    1. Careers in international affairs , Garland, Maria Pinto, ed.;
      Trucano, Michael, ed. , School of Foreign Service, George­
      town University. Washington, DC: Gerogetow.n University
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      Canadian Armed Forces , Bland, Douglas L. TO: Brown
      Bk Co. 1995

    5. Children on the move: how to implement their right to family
      life Doek. Jaap ed.; Loon, Hans van ed.; Vlaardingerbroek,
      Paul ed. Hague: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1996'. 294 p.

    This volume contains the text of the speeches given and the pa­pers presented at the international study conference 'Children on the move. 1 low to implement their right to family life. The text provides the reader with an in-depth analysis of the various legal

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    1. CIS migration report: 1996 / Technical Cooperation Centre
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      tion for Migration. Geneva: IOM = International Organiza­
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    2. Civilian-military cooperation in the prevention of deadly con­
      flict: implementing agreements in Bosnia and beyond Joul-
      wan. George A.; Shoemaker, Christopher C. Washington,
      DC: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict,
      1998. v, 56 p.

    3. Civil-military relations in the Soviet and Yugoslav successor
      states / Danopoulos, Constantine P. eel.; Zirker, Daniel ed.

    Boulder, CO: Wesiview Press, 1996. 279 p. The text brings together 14 essays that; explore the roles of the armed forces in the ongoing struggles for control over the processes of state formation and government in these newly inde­pendent countries. Twelve chapters focus on the experiences in the region; and introductory and concluding chapters draw out commonalities and differences among the cases, comparing them with one*'" another as well as with post-authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the world.

    1. Coercive inducement and the containment of international cri­
      ses / Daniel, Donald C.F.; Hayes, Bradd C.; de Jonge Ou-
      draat, Chantal. Washington, DC: United States Institute
      of Peace Press, 1999. xviii, 272 p.

    2. Coercive inducement and the containment of international cri­
      ses Daniel, Donald C.F.; Haves, Bradd C.; de Jonge Ou-
      draat, Chantal. Washington, DC: United States Institute
      of Peace Press, 1999. xviii, 272 p.

    The concept of a ^middle grounds between simple peace en­forcement and traditional peacekeeping by lightly armed observ­ers has been both ill defined and controversial. But the authors of this thoughtful yet challenging volume make a strong case for both the practicability and the desirability of such operations. «Coercive inducements. the term was suggested by Kofi .An-

    nan, when lie was under-secretary-general for peacekeeping a form of coercive diplomacy that relies more on the deployment and demonstration of military force rather than on the use c force per so. In the absence of such an option, the international community finds it hard to respond to a variety of crises, in eluding' ones that can spiral into genocide. After first laving on general principles, the hook explores four recent UN operation: (in Somalia, Rwanda, Bosnia, and Haiti) in which coercive in­ducement was particularly relevant, and (hen presents opera­tional guidelines for its use. Clear-sighted and pragmatic throughout, the authors conclude by suggesting when and to what extent the international community should commit: itself to undertake coercive inducement.

    98. Communication between cultures Samovar, Larry A.: Por­
    ter, Richard E.; Stefani, Lisa A. Belmont, CA: Wad-
    sworth Publishing Co. 1997. 303 p.

    The text focuses on the structure of culture with special em­phasis on religion, family and history. The authors explore how differences in perception, world views, values and verbal and non-verbal messages all effect communication.

    1. Conflict in Kosovo: failure of prevention?: an analytical
      documentation, 1992-1998 / Troebst, Stefan. / ECMI (Eu­
      ropean Centre for Minority Issues) Flensburg, Germany:
      ECMI, 1998. xi, 107 p.

    2. Contemporary international relations: frameworks for under­
      standing Papp, Daniel S. New York, NY: MACM1L-
      LAN, 1994. x, 637 p.

    101. Cracks in the consensus: debating the democracy agenda in U.S. foreign policy / Wiarda, Howard J. Westport. CT: Preager, 1997. xiii, 105 p.

    Democracy's success at the dawn of the twenty-first century is made possible by its strategic marriage to free market; capitalism. I his combination generates an imperfect but vibrant bazaar of ideas a marketplace of resources whose interaction is in effect. self-regulated through citizen institutions and, ultimately, freely elected government. In many ways the democratic record is de-
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    fining itself around the world on the basis of varied political and economic experiences, some of which may diverge in their specificity from the North Atlantic .historical context. Articulat­ing visions of democracy, let alone promoting them in the con­text of foreign policy, does not always graduate beyond rhetoric. This study addresses such issues. The author provides a timely overview of the democratic experience in key regions of the world, backed up with helpful case studies of the Latin Ameri­can and Caribbean area. At issue is the effectiveness of U.S. de­mocratization policy and the lessons learned. The author's con­clusions democracy is not irreversible and U.S. policy toward it is far from being infallible may be a timely wake-up call. The challenge Dr. Wiarda poses is anchored by three themes: first, that democracy means different things to different people; second, that democratic successes are shaped by factors difficult to reorient in the short term, such as a nation's historical trials and tribulation; and third, that U.S. policy instruments and ethnocentric interests do not always couple well with U.S. na­tional interests.

    1. Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina: managing arms in peace
      processes / Ekwall-Uebelhail, Barbara; Raevsky, Andrei;
      Potgieter, JW. New York, NY: United Nations Publica­
      tions, 1996. 22 p.

    2. Cross-cultural dialogues: 74 brief encounters with cultural
      difference , Storti, Craig. Yarmouth, ME: Intercultural
      Press, 1993. 140 p.

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    1. Cyprus: ethnic conflict and international politics: from inde-
      pendance to the threshold of European Union Joseph, Jo­
      seph S. New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 1997. 213 p.

    2. De Sarajevo a Sarajevo: i'echec Yougoslave Rupnik, Jac­
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      Beth. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1997. 252 p.

    From meeting protocol and sexual harassment to dining and gift giving, the rules for conducting business abroad can be dra­matically different from those at home-arid they can also vary from country to country. But with this indispensable resource, the reader will have everything needed to successfully interact with your business counterparts. The text gives specific advice on: survival, cultural differences, climbing the career ladder and personal issues.

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    Reports on the security situation in East Asia from the perspec­tive of researchers who specialize in security & regional studies. I 1 1. Eastoit D.A. Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York, 19G5. 112. Economic sanctions in U.S. foreign policy Ayubi, Shaheen; Bissell, Richard E.; Korsah, Nana Ainu-Brafih; Lemer, Laurie A. Philidelphia: Foreign Policy Research Institute, 1982. 86 p.

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    1. Europe in the balance: securing the peace won in the cold
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    2. Europe undivided: the new logic of peace in US-Russian rela­
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    The book examines the roots, ideas, and the practices of fas­cism and asseses its prospects in the contemporary world. Fas­cism is considered a movement of protest & discontent and likely candidates are singled out. 123. Fighting for peace Rose. Michael. London, UK: Harvill

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    130. Hearts grown brutal: sagas of Sarajevo Cohen, Roger.

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    136. In age of post-Cold War UN peacekeeping operations: ques­
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    137. Intercultural communication: an introduction Jamie, Fred
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    138. Internally' displaced people: a global survey Hampton,
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    A unique examination of one of the world's most acute hu­manitarian crises: the plight of over 23 million IDPs who are refugees within their own countries, forced to leave their homes because of military conflict, ethnic persecution, or other human rights violations. While high profile cases may be momentarily in the media's eye the vast majority of IDPs continue to survive, often in appalling conditions, with little security or legal protec­tion from national or supra-national bodies. This independent survey collates the most comprehensive & up to date information available, presenting facts, figures & trends for over 50 countries on 5 continents. Issues such as the rights of IDPs & the respon­sibilities of the international community towards them are ana­lysed & discussed.

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    This book is intended as a teaching manual and provides the necessary background on a variety of facts & issues, rules & pro­cedures, & the mechanism involved in Model UN programmes. 111. International organizations: a dictionary Schiavone, Gi­useppe. London, UK: MacMillan Press Ltd. 1997. 331 p.
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    2. Katastrofy I gosudarstvo Shoigu, S.K.; Vorob'ev, Y.L.; VJadi-
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    146. Keen S. Faces of enemy. Reflections of the hostile imagina­
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    148. Knights in white armor: the new art of war and peace Bellamy. Christopher, London, UK: Random House (UK) Ltd. 1996. xv, 272 p.

    In this timely and perceptive study. Bellamy develops a new theo­ry of war and peace. Using his personal experience as a serving soldier and as a defense correspondent who has had frontline ex­perience in Rwanda, Bosnia, the Gulf, Chechnya and Kurdistan,

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    Bellamy focuses specifically on the wav limited wars are conduc­
    ted. And, in this, inevitably he examines the complex role of the
    UN, Whose highly distinctive white armoured vehicles give the
    book its title. This book is an analysis of international politics
    and security. It takes a long hard look at the brutal face of war
    and also asks some very searching questions about the dilemma
    of peacekeeping by the United Nations or any other body.

    1. La defense en Europe: de la guerre dn Goife an conflit you-
      gosJave :/' Buffotot, Patrice, ed. Paris: La documentation
      Francaise, 1995. 215 p.

    2. La gestion cles'sorties de crise: actions civilo-militaires et ope­
      rations de reconstruction , Peigney, Pierre ed. Fondation
      pour les etudes de defense. Paris: Fondation pour les etu­
      des de defense, 1998.

    3. La guerre parfaite / Delpech, Therese. Paris: Flamma-
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    Chaque epoque a sa facon de faire la guerre. Ceux qui ne com-prennent pas a temps les changements qui bouleversent I'art rni-Jitaire sent condamnes a la defaitc. Les evolutions technologi-ques decisives out etc peu nombreuses an cours des siecles. EJles sont souvent intervenues longtemps avant leur utilisation au co­urs des conflits. Nous sornmes aujourd'hui a Van be d'une revo-lution militaire de grande ampjeur grace aux possiblites ouvertes par Jes technologies de i'information, les frappes a longue ciis-tajice, les armes intelligentes et une notivelle utilisation de 1'es-pace. Mais la fin du siecle est aussi celie de la proliferation des armes biologiques. chimiques et nucleaires, qui pen vent, consti-tuer pour des pays de moindre dfiveioppement des possibilites de contournement de la puissance technologique des pays occiden-taux. C'est aussi ie temps des genocides et des massacres de po­pulations civiles en Bosnie et. en Afriqne. C'est enfin ie moment de la mont.ee en puissance de la Chine. L'auteur montre que les grandes esperances iechnologit|ues de la fin du siecle, qui font miroiter des victoires rapides el decisives, pen vent conduire de r'il-turs adversaires a engager une re\rolu(ion pai'allele avec leurs pro-pros armes: ie tcrrorisnic, ia ruse, la repugnance des societes de-


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    La notion de 'conflit \-crt' est nouvelle. Elle couvre en fait tou-tes ces situations explosives qui peuvent alter de 1'emeute locale jusqu'au conflit international en passant par 1'insurrection ou la guerre civile et qui ont comme particularite d'etre directement liees a la rarete des ressources et; a 1'environnement malmene. Cer-tes, les sen Is problemes ecologiques ne mettent pas necessairement ie feu aux poudres; ils viennent plutot s'aj outer a d'autres etin-celles, d'ordre po.litique, social, national, ethnique, religieux... Mais a mesure que la saute de noire planete se deteriore, ie


    E. r. BapanoecKuu, H. H, Bnaducnaeneea

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    This report concerns the Meskhetian Turks, a less well-known victimized people whe were not only deported en masse in .1944, but who were also subjected in 1989 to a progorn in the Fergana Valley in what is now Uzbekistan. Dispersed in Centra! Asia, Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan, the Meskhetian Turks aspire to return to their ancestral homeland in Georgia. Only a relative handful have been permitted to return, and many live in diffi­cult circumstances in places such as the Krasnodar region of Russia, where they are often subject to discriminatory and abu­sive treatment by local authorities, such as the granting or withholding of residency permits. The report examines the eco­nomic, social, and political dimensions of issues concerning the Meskhetian Turks. Strategies to fortify both human and national security are put forth, and specific recommendations are made to manage the issue in ways that could ameliorate hardships and prevent interethnic tensions, thus preventing forced displace­ment.

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    trade, and political factors that impel states to set. aside re­sources for naval fore.es: a review of the compelling reasons for having a domestic naval shipbuilding industry; a focus from the actual to the ideal, to look away from real navies as they exist in the world today and to turn to notations.! ones; a discussion of the epitome of model navies; a review of" the salutary example of the former' Soviet Union and its satellites; case studies of countries and their first faltering steps into the arena of navies and naval industries with a global overview of the navy-industry equation; an underscore of the problems that render the symbio­sis <<uneasy>> or unstable.

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    As the millennium approaches, the world is experiencing civil wars exclusively half of which are being waged over the issue of secession. This book offers a comparative view of nine historic separatist movements, some of which have achieved the breakup of an empire or a state and others that to date have not. Con­tributors also analyze the implications of separatism and look at other possibilities for reconciling particularistic identities with the more universal goals of nationalism and citizenship.

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    7. The post-Soviet handbook: A guide to grassroots organiza­
      tions and internet resources in the newly independent states

    Ruffin, M. Holt: McCarter, Joan; Upjohn, Richard. Seattle: Univ. of Washington Pr, 1996. 23. 214. The Russian army in a time of troubles Baev, Pavel K. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996. xiii, 204 p.


    Tin.- book starts with a historical overview of Russia's securi­ty agenda and examines the Russian/Soviet Army's tradition of involvement in politics. It goes on to look at Russia's current se­curity interests and the role of the Army in protecting them. Genera! geopolitical perspectives are linked to the more burning security issues of the <?Near Abroad*-, and to the nuclear dimen­sion of security. Raev then considers the fundamental question of the feasibility of political control over the Russian Army. The problem of the Army's politicization is followed through the in­terlinked issues of stalled military reform and a drastically re­duced military budget. The final part of the book takes up the current military role of the Army, a major aspect of which is conflict, management in the former Soviet Union the case of the Caucasus is studied in detail. The Chechen War is seen as a logical continuation of Russia's self-assertive policy but also as a departure from the previous military patterns of peace­keeping. Poor performance in this unpopular war should not Baev warns be taken to mean the final disintegration of the Russian Army. History provides too many examples of how it has managed to resurface even after the most devastating defeats.

    245. The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth cen­
    tury Huntington, Samuel P. Norman, Oklahoma: Uni­
    versity of Oklahoma Press, 1991. 366 p.

    This book attempts to explain an important global political development of the late twentieth century: the transition, of some thirty countries, from non democratic to democratic politi­cal systems. The author attempts to explain why, how and with what immediate consequences this wave of democratization oc­curred bet: ween 197--1 and 1990.

    246. The UN Secretary-General from the Cold War to the new era:
    a global peace and security mandate? Newman, Edward.
    London, UK: MacMillan Press Ltd. 1998. vii, 239 p.

    217. The United Nations and NATO in former Yugoslavia: part­ners in international cooperation / Leurdijk, Dick A. The Hague: Netherlands Atlantic Commission, 1991.


    (Bibliography and references)

    2-18. The United Nations and NATO in Former Yugoslavia, .1991-1996: limits to diplomacy and force Leurdijk, Dick A. The Hague: Netherlands Atlantic Commission. 1996. xv, 152 p.

    249. The United Nations in conflict management: American, So­
    viet and Third World Views . Weiss, Thomas G. New
    York, NY: Internationa! Peace Academy, 1990. 85 p.

    The role of UN pk & prn in the management & resolution ofin-t'l conflicts. Discussion on super-power involvement in the Third World.

    1. The warrior who would rule Russia: a profile of Aleksandr Le-
      bed Lambeth. Benjamin S. — Santa Monica. CA: Rand, 1996.

    2. Tikhomirov V.B. New International Development Strategy:
      A Systems Analysis Approach. New York, 1981.

    3. Tons pour un on chacun pour soi: promesses et limites de la
      cooperation regionale en matiere de securite Fortmann, Mi­
      chel; MacFarlane. S. Neil; Roussel, Stephane. - Quebec, QC:
      Institut quebecois des hautes etudes Internationales. 1996. 375 p.

    4. Towards a rapid reaction capability for the United Nations =
      Les operations de paix de I'ONU: vers une capacite de
      reaction rapide: report of the Government of Canada = rap­
      port chi Gouvemement clu Canada Ministry of Foreign Af­
      fairs; DND. Ottawa: Govt Canada, 1995. [164] p.

    5. Transitions geopolitiqties sur ie continent europeen: mutati­
      ons dans Tisthrne mer Baltique mer Noire Foucher, Mi­
      chel, ed. Paris, France: Fonelation pour les etudes de de­
      fense, 1998. 224 p.

    Fruit d'enquetes de terrain et. de nombreux contacts, cette etu­de des perceptions nationaies de quelqties pays de Tare de 1'Euro-pe or i en tale offre an lecteur un regard nouveau qui elargit et ap-profondit la reflexion et la connaissance a propos de ces pays. Sont analyses les points de vue dc la Pologne, la Bielorussie, i'Ukraine, la Repubiiquc Moldova, la Roumanie. la Turquie. To­ns ces pays portent, pour des raisons bien different.es, un ijiteret a la CEI et, done a la Rtissie incontournabie et sont, par ailleurs, fortement attires par I'Union europeenne el 1'OTAN. C'est cette imbrication des interets qui est tort bien montree ici. Get «es-

    pace de i'indesision* on lejeu influences concurrentes est dis­ablement ouvert, clonne a cet entre-deux-rners tine importance accme dans les relations est-ouest.

    255. Triumph of the lack of will: international diplomacy and the Yugoslav War CJow, James. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1997. 343 p.

    25(). True north-not strong and free: defending the peaceable king­dom in the nuclear age Newman, Peter C. TO: Pen­guin, 1983,

    257. Turkey's Kurdish question Barkey, Henri J.; Fuller, Gra­ham E. , Carnegie Corporation of New York. Lanham, MI): Rowman and Littlefiekk 1998- xix, 239 p. Based on extensive study, interviews with Kurds and Turks, and a long familiarity with Turkey this a pGlicy book with the mass of information and analysis directly geared to finding a bet­ter approach to the issue. Unfortunately, no good statistical basis exists for analyzing Kurdish matters, or tor generalizing about the views of Turkey's far-flung Kurdish populations. The authors call for a solution «within current borders* that infer alia (!) effectively establishes a legal Kurdish identity, (2) radically re­duces and alters the current military approach in the southeast, (3) protects rather than harasses or bans Kurdish political par­ties, (4) allows Kurds education in their own language, and (5) decentralizes the administration of the state. They call for a dia­logue, as inclusive as possible, with Kurds of differing political views and from various backgrounds. A basic requirement, in their view, is greater democracy and openness in Turkey, a pre­scription that in any case would serve Turkey's ultimate interests. Such a proposal as greater government decentralization is also important for Turkey regardless of its impact on the Kurdish is­sue. The entire Kurdish question is deemed of a particular inter­est as it presents a range of issues with considerable generic ap­plicability to conflict situations in the rest of the world. 258. Two NATO allies at the threshold of war: Cyprus, a first­hand account of crisis management, 1965—1968 Hart. Parker T. LONDON: Duke U Pr, 1990.

    (Bibliography and references)

    1. U.S. national security policy and strategy, 198/-1994:
      documents and policy proposals / Vitas, Robert A. ed.: Wil­
      liams, John Alien ed.; Sarkesian, Sam C. foreword.
      Westporl: Greenwood Pr, 1996.

    2. Ukraine and european security: international mechanisms as
      non-military security options for the Ukraine Lupiy.
      Bohdan. Frankfurt: Peter Lang, 1996. 122 p.

    3. UN peacekeeping, American politics and the uncivil wars of
      the 1990s Durch. William J. New York. NY: St. Mar­
      tin's Press, 1996.

    4. United States Security Strategy for Europe and NATO / Of­
      fice of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Se­
      curity Affairs)-US Defense Department. Washington. DC:
      US Defense Department, 01 June 1995.

    5. Verification 1996: arms control, peacekeeping and the envi­
      ronment Poole, J.B. ed.; Outline, R. ed. Boulder. CO:
      Westview Press. 1996.

    6. Verification of disarmament or limitation of armaments: in­
      struments, negotiations, proposals Sur, Serge, ed.
      UNIDIR (United Nations Institute for Disarmament Re­
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      26-7 p.

    7. Violations of the Helsinki accords: August 1983 Septem­
      ber 1984 - Helsinki Watch. New York, NY: US Helsinki
      Watch Committee, 1984.

    8. War and peace in the former Yugoslavia / de Rossanet, Ber-
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      tional. 1997. v, 189 p.

    9. War without battles: Canada's NATO brigade in Germany,
      1951-1993: Canada's NATO brigade in Germany, 1951-
      1993 Maloney, Sean. Toronto, ON: McGraw-Hill,
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    10. War without battles ~ Au coenr d'une guerre sans combat:
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      Canadienne de 1'OTAN en Allcmagne 1951-1993 Maloney,
      Sean, Toronto. ON: McGraw-Hill, 1997. c.lE: 525 p.

    269. Wen at fifty , Lenzi, Guido, eel. Paris, France: Institute
    for Security Studies of Western European Union, 1998. x, 135 p.

    270. When cultures collide: managing successfully across cultures ,
    Lewis, Richard D. LONDON:" Nicholas Brealey, 1996. 332 p.

    The author provides a global and practical guide to working and communicating across cultures, explaining how our own cul­ture and language affect the ways in which we organize our world, think, feel and respond, before going on to suggest both general and specific ways of making influences felt across the cultural divide.

    1. Woodcock A. A Conflict Structure Code for Conflict Defini­
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      Canadian Int. Peacekeeping Training Centre, 1.998.

    2. Woodcock A., Davis D. Analytical Approaches to the Study
      of Future Conflict // The Cormvails Group II: Analysis for
      and of the Resolution of Conflict. The Lester B. Pearson Ca­
      nadian Int. Peacekeeping Training Centre, 1996.

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    This report brings together the latest trends, facts and analysis of contemporary catastrophes and their effect on vulnerable mil­lions worldwide. An indispensable information source and refer­ence work for those searching for strategies and tactics in the face of disaster.

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    2. Zartinan I. William. Introduction in the 50% Solution, ed.
      l.W. Zartman, Garden City, 1976.


    Условные обозначения к карте

    1. Уровень интенсивности конфликта

    ^ Высокоинтенсивный конфликт (конфликт 5-го уровня по шкале РЮОМ: широкомасштабный вооруженный кон­фликт, в результате которого погибло более чем 1000 чело­век за период с середины 1997 г. по середину 1998 г.)

    ^ Конфликт малой интенсивности (конфликт 4-го уровня по шкале РЮОМ: вооруженный конфликт, в результате ко­торого погибло от 100 до 1000 человек за период с середи­ны 1997 г. по середину 1998 г.)

    ^ Политический конфликт с применением насилия (кон­фликт 3-го уровня по шкале РЮОМ: вооруженный кон­фликт, в результате которого погибло менее 100 человек за период с середины 1997 г. по середину 1998 г.)

    ^ 2. Прекращение огня или мирное соглашение

    3. Миссия наблюдателей ООН и другие международные миссии наблюдателей или миротворческие операции

    Прекращение огня или мирное соглашение

    ^ Операции ООН

    (РК = миротворческая операция, ОВ = миссия наблюдателей).

    Другие международные операции

    (РК = миротворческая операция, О В = миссия наблюдателей).
    Е. Г. Барановский, Н. Н. Владиславлева

    Методы анализа международных конфликтов

    ^ 4. Направление изменения напряженности конфликта

    Наблюдался то рост, то спад напряженности конфликта в течение по­следнего года

    Напряженность конфлик­та оставалась постоянной в течение последнего года

    Напряженность конфлик­та росла в течение по­следнего года

    Напряженность конфлик­та падала в течение по­следнего года

    ^ 5. Уровень политического террора (ситуация на 1997 г.)

    1. уровень: в стране действуют законы, надежно защи­
      щающие права граждан, граждан не преследуют и не са­
      жают в тюрьму за их взгляды, применение пыток явление
      крайне редкое и исключительное. Случаи политических
      убийств крайне редки.

    2. уровень: имеют место немногочисленные случаи заклю­
      чения в тюрьму за политическую деятельность. Примене­
      ние пыток и избиений — событие исключительное. Случаи
      политических убийств редки.

    3. уровень: преследования за политическую деятельность,
      казни, политические убийства и зверства могут быть широ­
      ко распространены. Имеют место неограниченные задер­
      жания с последующим заключением или пет в тюрьму за
      политические взгляды.

    4. уровень: действия, характеризующие 3-й уровень, охва­
      тывают еще большее число людей. Убийства, исчезновения
      и пытки становятся частью жизни. Несмотря на всеобщий
      характер, на этом уровне в первую очередь от насильст­
      венных действий страдают те люди, которые непосредст­
      венно участвуют в политической жизни.

    5. уровень: насильственные действия, имеющие место на
      4-м уровне, могут применяться по отношению ко всему на­
      селению. Лидеры этих сообществ используют любые сред­
      ства для достижения личных или идеологических целей.

    Цифры на карте обозначают:


    Central- and Southern-America (Центральная и Южная Америка)

    1. Bolivia (Chapare: Coca fanners, drug traffickers, timber pirates, self-defense groups; FELCN, UMOPAR)

    1. Brazil (Para: MST)

    2. Brazil (Roraima: Indians (Yanomami, Guarany, Kaiawa) vs. Garimpeiros

    3. Colombia (Indigenous population: Uwa vs. Latifundistas)

    4. Colombia (Politicide: UP)

    5. Cuba (Exile infiltrators: MRR)

    6. Dominican Rep (suppression popular protest)

    7. Ecuador-Per (border conflict in Cenepa valley)

    8. El Salvador (ex-guerrilleros, criminal bands, Sombra Negra, FMLN, UMC)

    9. Mexico (Oaxaca: Indians, EPR, ELS)

    10. Mexico (Tabasco: Indians, EPR)

    11. Mexico (violence against PRO)

    12. Mexico (Guerrero: EPR, EPR1, ELS, OCSS)

    13. Nicaragua (NR, Re-contra's, FAR, FUAC.NF3-80)

    14. Panama-Colombia (Darien region: Cross border banditry, guerrilla)

    15. Pei-u(MRTA)

    16. Surinam (Tucayana Indians)

    17. United States (militia & Christian identity movement)

    18. Venezuela-Colombia (Border: Cross border banditry, guerrilla)

    19. Venezuela (Yanomami vs. Garimpeiros)

    20. Venezuela (Lara state: Vigilantism by 'brigadas')

    Western-, Central- and Eastern-Europe (Западная, Центральная и Восточная Европа)

    1. Bosnia-Herz. (Serbs, Muslims, Croats)

    2. Croatia (East/West Slavonia, Krajina: Croats vs. Serbs)

    3. Cyprus (Greeks vs. Turks)

    4. France (Corsica: FLNC, organized crime)

    5. Georgia (Ingushetia)

    6. Greece (Nov-17, ELA)

    7. Macedonia (spillover Kosovo, Albanians: UCK)

    8. N.Ireland (IRA, Continuity IRA, LVF, UFF, UVF, UDA, INLA: DAAD)

    9. Russian Fed. (Kyzlyar territory in Stravropol region: Cossacks)

    10. Russian Fed.-Georgia (South & North Ossetia)

    11. Serbia (Repression, organized crime)

    12. Spain (Basque region: ETA)

    Africa (Африка)

    1. Cameroon-Nigeria (Bakassi island dispute)

    2. Cameroon (NW province: Chari & Logone River valleys: Kotokos vs. Choas


    (World Conflict Map)

    1. Chad (Lake Chad, Kousseri-Maroua axis: banditry, Tubus, Chadian & Nigerian

    2. Djibouti (Afar:FRUD)

    3. Eq.Guinea (Bioko Island: Repression ofBubi: MADBI)

    4. Eritrea (Northwest: Islamists: EIJ)

    5. Ethiopia-Sudan (Border)

    6. Ethiopia (Amhara: AAPO, ONLF)

    7. Ethiopia (Afar: ARDUF)

    8. Ethiopia (HararHDF)

    9. Ethiopia (Oromia: OLF, IFLO)

    10. Ghana (North: Konkomba vs. Dagombas, Nanumbas, Conjas)

    11. Guinea (Malinke vs. Gerze)

    12. Ivory Coast (Zoukougbeu: Bete vs. Baoule, land disputes)

    13. Kenya (Mombassa: armed gangs, Digo, Giriyama, islamists, IPK)

    14. Kenya (Moyale-Marsabit: Ethiopian army vs. OLF; Borana)

    15. Kenya (Hadza vs. hunters)

    16. Mali (Tuareg: F1AA, ARLA, Songhai, Peul: MPGK)

    17. Mauritania (Senegal River: Return of refugees, land disputes)

    18. Niger (North: Tuareg: FLAA)

    19. Niger (East, Northeast: CRA, UFRA, PARS)

    20. Niger-Nigeria (Diffa & Borno: Wodaabe vs. Tubus, land disputes)

    21. Nigeria (Delta state: Ogoni: MOSOP)

    22. Nigeria (Bay el sa state: Ijaw vs. Urhobo)

    23. Nigeria (Oyo state: Yortiba vs. Fulani)

    24. Nigeria fTaraba state: Kutep vs. Jukun-Chamba)

    25. Nigeria-Chad (Tetewa island dispute)

    26. Somalia (Puntland: secessionist clans)

    27. Somalia (Somaliland: SNM)

    28. Sudan (East: repression of the Bedja: Bedja Congress)

    29. Sudan-Eritrea (Border: Sudan vs. Eritrea)

    30. Uganda (SalafTabliq: anti-Muslim hostilities, harassment by sec. forces)

    31. Zambia (unsuccessful coup d'etat, NRC)

    32. Zimbabwe (Malabeleland: land disputes & repression of violent protests)

    Northern-Africa and Middle East (Северная Африка и Ближний Восток)

    1. Bahrein (Shia Islamists: IFLB; Bidoon)

    2. Iraq (repression Assyrians)

    70. Israel (Occupied Territories: Hamas, Hizballah, Kach, Kahana Chai, Zo Artsenu)
    7 I.Libya (East: Islamists, Warfalla)

    1. Morocco (Western Sahara:'POLISAR1O)

    2. Morocco (Islamists: IJG, 'group of 26')

    3. Palestine (Intra-Palestinian, DFLP, Hamas. Hizballah, P1J, PLF, PFLP, PFLP-GC)

    4. Saudi-Arabia (Islamists)


    1. Tunesia (Islamists, An Nahda, CWP)

    2. Yemen (Marib & al-Joul governorates: repression of opposition)

    3. Yemen (intertribal conflicts: at Hadda, Khawlan)

    Central-Asia (Центральная Азия)

    1. Bangladesh (CHT: S/ianti Bahini)

    2. Bangladesh (Rohingyas)
      81 .Bhutan (Ngalong: BPP)

    1. India (Andra Pradesh: PWG, GT, MCC, CPI-ML, MRPS)

    2. India (Assam: Kokrajhir district: (Santhals vs. Bodos: BOSF, BLTF, NDFB: BTF)

    3. India (Karnataka: PWG)

    4. India (Orissa, Bihar: PWG, Jarkhand Movement: JLF)

    5. India (Madhya Pradesh: PWG)

    6. India (Maharashtra: Dalits, PWG)

    7. India (Meghalaya: CNF)

    8. India (Mizoram: Reang)

    9. India (Sikkim: Gurkhas)

    10. India (Tamil Nadu: intercasle, AIADMK)

    11. India (Uttar Pradesh: Uttarkhand: Garwhalis)

    12. India (Rajastan: Hindus-Muslims, land disputes)

    13. India (West Bengal: KPP)

    14. India-Pakistan (Slacken gletscher)

    15. Pakistan (Punjab: Kalabagh Dam dispute)

    16. Uzbekistan (Namangan region: Islamists)

    Far East and South East Asia (Дальний Восток и Юго-Восточная Азия)

    1. China (Tibet: Repression Tibetans)

    2. China (Guangdong: social unrest)

    3. Indonesia (West Kalimantan: Madurese vs. Dayak)

    4. Indonesia (Java: anti-Chinese riots, student protests)

    5. Indonesia (West Irian: OPM)

    6. Indonesia (East Timor: (FALANTIL vs. ABRl, ninjas)

    7. Indonesia (Islamists)

    8. Indonesia (Sulawesi: Ujung Pandang: student riots, unrest)

    9. Indonesia (Aceh: GAM)

    10. Indonesia (Sumatra: Anti-Christian, anti-Chinese violence)

    11. Laos (Hmong: insurgency, clan rivalry,)

    12. Malaysia (Penan: land disputes)

    13. N./S. Korea (Divided country)

    14. Papua New Guinea (Bougainville: BRA vs. PNGDF)

    15. Philippines (NPA, ABB, RPP)

    1 13. Philippines (Indigenous peoples: Higaonon, Lumad, Aetas) 114. Thailand (Southern provinces: PULO)


    (World Conflict Map


    Central-and South America (Центральная и Южная)

    1. t Colombia (Northeast: ELN)

    1. t Colombia (Uraba, Atlantic Coast: EPL)

    2. t Colombia (N.Valle del Cauca: Indian peasants vs. land & druglords)

    3. \ Guatemala (URNG, armed gangs)

    4. J, Haiti (Port-au-Prince, La Saline, Cite Soleih'Neo-Duvalierists',

    armed gangs)

    1. t Honduras (Indigenous population, death squads)

    2. t Mexico (Chiapas: EZLN)

    3. \ Peru (Sendero Luminoso, 'rondas campesinos')

    Western-,Central and Eastern Europe (Западная, Центральная и Восточная Европа)

    9. tJ. Albania (Armed gangs, police, security forces)

    10. | Azerbaijan/

    Armenia (Nagorno-K.: NAM, militias, AFNK)

    11. t Daghestan (Inter-clan: Avars, Dargins, Kumyks, semi-legal military


    12. t Georgia (Abkhazia (Gall district): Mchedroni, WL, FB, LA, Cobra,

    IMT, Russia)

    1. J, Russian Fed. (Chechnya: interdan)

    2. t Serbia (Kosovo: UCK)

    3. J, Tajikistan (Garm, Karategin, Kofarnikhon: Warlords, UTO,

    vigilantes, paramilitary)

    Africa (Африка)

    1. T Angola (Cabinda: FAC, FDC, FLEC, FLEC-Renovada)

    2. t Angola (Malanje, Huila, Benguela, Luanda-Norte, Mexico: UNITA,

    armed gangs)

    1. t Centr.Afr. Rep. (Karako, Mbororo, Yakoma, France (EFAO)

    2. tl Chad (Doha basin: FARF, Brigade Mixte, CNNT, MOD, FNTR,


    1. jj Comoros isl. (secession Nzwani Island)

    2. t Congo/Zaire (DSP, AFDL, Uganda, Rwanda, Angola, mercenaries,


    1. t Congo/Zaire (Kivu: Banyamulenge)

    2. t Congo/Zaire (North Kivu (Masisi): Nyangas, Hundes, Tembos, Nandes vs,

    Banyarwandas, Mai Mai, Rwanda, Burundi, Hutu militias)

    1. | Congo/Zaire (repression of Bembe)

    2. T Ethiopia (Ogaden: Al 'Ittihad, SNF)

    3. t GuineaBissau (Balante, Pepel, army mutiny, Senegal, Guinea)

    4. t Kenya (Pokot, Marakwet, Baringo: Turkana, Samburu, Pokot,

    Marakwets, Masaai, Kisiis)


    1. I Kenya (Rift Valley: Kalenjin vs. Kikuyu, Luo, Luhiya)

    2. | Liberia (Kpelle, Krahn, Mende, Gio, Loma: NPLF, ULIMO-K,


    1. t Mozambique (Maringue: RENAMO vs. FRELIMO)

    2. t Nigeria (Lagos, Ibadan: Haussa, Yoruba, PLAN, UFLN)

    3. | Nigeria (Delta state: Ijaw-ltsekiri vs. Urhobo)
      33.= Nigeria (Osun state: Ife vs. Modakeke communities)

    1. | Nigeria (Kaduna state: Muslims vs. Christians, Shi'ites vs.Sunni)

    2. | Nigeria (Taraba state: Tiv vs. Jukun)

    3. J, Senegal (Casamanche: Diola: MFDC)

    4. | Somalia (Mogadishu, Badao, Kismayo: interclan, RRA, SSDF,

    SNM, SPM, USC)

    38. = South Africa (East Cape, Transvaal, Free State, Northern Natal: Boers,

    BWB vs. ex-UWS, APLA)

    1. t South Africa (Kwazulu-Natal: ANC vs. IFF)

    2. | Sudan (Kordofan: repression of Nuba by government forces)

    3. t Sudan (West Darfur: Rezaigat vs. Massalit)

    4. t Uganda (North: Acholi: LRA, UNRF vs. UPDF)

    5. j Uganda (West Nile province: Lugbara: WNBF vs. UPDF)

    6. J. Uganda (West: Baganda: ADF vs. UPDF)

    7. tl Uganda (UYCF vs. UPDF)

    8. t Uganda (Southwest: Bakonjos: NALU vs. UPDF)

    9. = Uganda (Karamojong vs. ASTU)

    North Africa and Middle East (Северная Африка и Ближний Восток)

    1. = Algeria (Kabylia: repression of Berbers: SSF, RCD)

    2. J. Egypt (Islamists: IG, Jihad, MB, TWH)

    3. = Iran (Border with Iraq: Kurds: DPK/I vs. IRGC, Basijis)

    51 .= Iran (Border with Iraq: GNRI, NLA, MEK vs. IRQC, Basijis)

    1. = Iraq (Southern marshes: Shi'ites, SCIRI, SAIRI)

    2. = Lebanon (Border with Israel: Hezbollah, SLA, Israel)

    Central Asia (Центральная Азия)

    1. | Bangladesh (BNP, Awami League e.a. vs. police, security forces)

    2. = India (Maharashtra: Hindus-Muslims)

    3. = India (Manipur: Meitei)

    4. t India (Nagaland: Naga: NSCN(IM), NSCN-Khaplang vs. Kuki:


    1. = India (Punjab: Sikhs: KCF, BTK, KLF, BK)

    2. t India (Tripura: NLFT, ATTF)

    3. j Nepal (Maoists: UPF)

    61.= Pakistan (Punjab: Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (Sunni) vs.


    World Conflict Map

    1. = Pakistan (Sindh: Mohajir: MQM, MQM-Haqiqi vs. SPP)

    2. = Pakistan (NWFP: Jl, IJT, TIUQ)

    3. | Pakistan (Baluchistan: Kasranis, Legharis, Bozdars, Malghani)

    Far East and South East Asia (Дальний Восток и Юго-Восточная Азия)

    1. | Burma (North: Shan: MTA or SUA, SURA, SSNA)

    2. I Burma (Taninthayi prov.: Karenni: KNPP, ABSDF)

    3. t Burma (Border with China: Wa: UWSA)

    4. t Cambodia (Border with Thailand: Khmer Rouge, CPP, FUNCINPEC)

    5. t| China (Xinjiang: Uighurs: UNRFET, Wolves of Lop Nor)

    6. t Philippines (Mindanao: Moros: MNLF, MILF, ASG, ICC, BMIAF vs.

    Christian militias)


    Country Begin Parties Estimated number of 1997-98

    and cumulative deaths

    1. t Algeria 1990- (GIA, MIA, AIS, mercenaries) > 12,000 80,000-100,000

    2. | Afghanistan 1978- (Taleban vs. alliance of Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek warlords,

    mercenaries) >10,000 >1,500,000

    3. jj, Congo, 1993- (Zulus, Cobras, Ninjas, Angola, mercenaries)

    Brazz > 10,000 > 12,000

    4. f Rwanda 1994- (RPA vs. Abucengezi, ind.ex-FAR, Interahamwe, FRD)

    > 10,000 >820,000

    5. t Sudan 1983- (South:SPLA,SSIM/A, UDSF, NDA, NIF, mercenaries)

    > 10,000 > 1,500,000

    6. t Burundi 1993- (Hutu:FDD, Palipehutu, FROLINA vs. Tutsi: FRODEBU, UPRONA,

    vigilantes, civil militias) 4,500-9.000 >200,000

    7. t Turkey 1983- (Southeast Anatolia: PKK, DHKP/C, DEV SOL, T1KKO, IBCA-G,

    Hezbollah, village guards) >6,700 >37,000

    8. | Colombia 1964- (Southern regions: SBCG, FARC, ACCU.AUC,

    'autodefensas') >6,000 40,000-250,000

    1. t Sri Lanka 1983- (Jaffna peninsula: LTTE.PLOTE) >4,000 55,000-70,000

    2. t India- 1989- (Jammu &Kasnmir: BSF, JKLF, HUA, Al, Faran, HM, JUM,

    Pakistan HJI, Ikhwan, mercenaries) >2,200 30,000-60,000

    1. I Iraq 1987- (North: Kurds: KDP, PUK, PKK, Turkey) > 1,200 100-250,000

    2. I Sierra 1991 - (Kailahun, Kono: RSLMF, 'Kamajors', EO, Nigeria, Guinea vs. APRC,

    Leone RUF, 'sobels', civil defense milities) >2,000 15,000-20,000

    13. | Ethiopia- 1998- (Yirga triangle: Ethiopia vs. Eritrea)

    Eritrea > 1,000 > 1,000

    14. t Burma 1948- (Border Thailand: Karen: KNU, DAB, DKBA)

    > 1,000 130,000-500,000

    1. | India 1990- (Assam: ULFA, SULFA) > 1,000 >5,000

    2. t India 1985- (Bihar: Ranvir Sena, ba'ndits, castes, MCC, CPI(ML), PWG)

    > 1,000 >3,000




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